"ANY MAN DRINKING MILK AT THE POKER TABLE MUST BE FEARED."

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

THE TIME HAS COME, THE WALRUS SAID

Tonight at a free tourney I had some wicked bad luck.
I remember reading somewhere that one day in 1931 -- I think it was -- a Monte Carlo roulette wheel hit black 32 times straight. The odds against that are 2^32, and that's more than one in a billion -- so I don't guess I should feel that bad -- and that wheel has been spinning almost continuously for something like 300 years, so it was certain to happen sooner or later --and it really was. In fact, given a large enough sample size, you can name any sequence of red-black outcomes and be certain to find it somewhere within it. Just like you can name any sequence of random numbers -- however long you'd like -- and be certain that it appears somewhere in the decimal expansion of pi.
And the canonical example of this concept is that if you let a bunch of chimps type randomly for long enough, they're certain to come up with the complete works of todaysmilk.
The key word in all this is "certain".
So now, I suppose I've been playing hold'em poker long enough that it's my turn to flop top pair six straight times and lose each hand. It's certainly frustrating.

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